Phillies vs. Mets

June 10, 2009

Baseball Prospectus, a great web site that caters to NJ ( Nerdy Justin ) had a great piece yesterday on the current three game series between the New York Mets and the Phillies.  You’ll need a memberhip to Baseball Prospectus ( $5 / month ) to read the whole article, but the gist was that the two teams are relatively evenly matched in a number of statistical categories especially pitching depth throughout the team.  The piece has a very technical analysis of how well the Phillies have performed so far compared to how they were expected to at this point based on information such as the total number of runs the team has scored and how many they “should have”.

This short paper on “Regression to the Mean” is helpful in understanding the point made in the article about how Raul Ibanez is likely to perform at a slightly lower level during the remainder of the season than he has so far.

Since the Phillies were unlucky last night, let’s hope they can salvage a 2-1 record for this series and be energized for their return to Philly later this week!

Over the next three days, the Phillies will play a three game series in New York against the Mets.  There are four possible outcomes after these three games are played, and only one of them is acceptable to me.

Consider this table which would show the records of the Phillies and Mets after the three games are played for each possible case:


Phillies Win

Phillies Record

Mets Record


# of Games Behind

Is Phillies’ Goose Cooked ?

0 76-64 82-61 6 Yes
1 77-64 81-62 4 Yes
2 78-64 80-63 2 Partially
3 79-64 79-64 0 No

So, let’s root, root root for the Phil…..lies…. ’cause if they don’t win, it’s a shame!!!