Gay Marriage Trends

April 11, 2009

I came across Nate Silver’s recent statistical analysis of trends in Gay Marriage after doing some morning reading on the NY Times’ Freakonomics blog.

He found that marriage bans are becoming about 2% harder to pass each year… if a given state in one particular year voted 60-40 to ban gay marriage, three years later the vote would likely be 54-46.

He even goes so far as to make predictions based on his model as to which year a marriage ban would no longer be successful in a given state.  Not surprisingly, he hints that over the course of the next 15-20 years, the Wikipedia article “Same-sex Marriage in the United States” will need extensive revisions.

Only time will tell if Mr. Silver’s predictions are right.

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